When the situation in which Bosnia and Herzegovina finds itself today is simplified, following a simple logic, three crucial factors remain in the game, both for understanding the reasons for the evident state and social drama, and for thinking about how to get out of that drama.
The first are ordinary, textbook-painted as historically benevolent citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina, of all roots, beliefs and affiliations. Those who would like to live in a more or less normal state that recognizes and respects everything, regardless of differences, individual and collective.
Others are those who, for various reasons, play either someone else’s or just their own interesting games against their country. It is important to put the state in your pocket as much as possible, as a reward from these games. Always in the name of ‘history’, ‘injustice’, ‘difference’ and ‘system’ in which they are always unequal compared to what their interests are…
The third are those we call the ‘international community’, foreigners self-imposed on domestic undercapacity to self-organize. At such patronage, of course, their interests are ‘balanced’. So what is interesting in that balance? Local ignorance, illusions and beliefs about the ‘international community’ as a saviour to those from the first group, are the driver of suicidal illusions.
A Collective Game of Nothing
There is almost no point in talking about the former and the latter here. The former do not show even a minimum of strength and intelligence to take their own survival into their own hands. Third parties are left with room for their interesting games. In that, they need peace on the field, balanced, as they like to say. The silence and incompetence of the former, the interest of the third, the profit of the latter. The collective game of nothing is important to them, the sacrificed individuals are not.
Finally, the so-called international community has long been not a ‘community’, but a conglomeration of completely different interests and plans, rearranged friendships, smiles, bought matches and paid referees. These rearrangements of world alliances, (geo) strategies and blocs were illustrated by the current EU foreign minister Josep Borrell: ‘Once the world was bipolar, then unipolar, now multipolar.’ And that is much more pronounced multipolar than multilateral. Opposing and not harmonizing.
And it is in this story, notorious for many in the world except for our politicians. Unprepared and ignorant to understand their own positions in the world – there are many reasons for the severe nightmares we go through in recent years and especially months. Because those who understand the government here only as their own business do not know and it does not suit them to know what the interests of politics in the world are, even in relation to us who are irrelevant. It would jeopardize their profits from the darkness around them.
From today’s perspective, the belief of the ‘half’ of the BiH public that the Americans will surely make all the necessary moves to punish Dodik and his immediate entourage for the apparent collapse of the state are growing by the hour. In other news, Dodik is scheduling extraordinary sessions of ‘his’ National Assembly to operationalize what any normal person interprets as a coup d’etat. Along the way, he visits or invites, ‘leaders’, from the region whose interests lie, “like a royal flush”. From Orban, Janša, Milanović, Čović, to his brother Vučić, who is passionately overplayed by the “principled defence” of the fascist mural. And on top of it all, there are the attempts of the exalted Dodik to enlighten the naive Erdoğan in the middle of Istanbul (sic!) At the same time, look at the miracles. From the background in Brussels, they signal that all this together is not really naive, according to their interests. But Borrell, for example, does not “understand” that danger or even the need for sanctions to Dodik as many others in the EU, such as Germany and the Netherlands. On the other hand, Poland, Hungary and the Slovenian right are obviously at his heart.
A simple story in the background gave its soul to domestic and foreign political “influencers”, as they see themselves. And they are not able to see very well. First, Biden today is not the Biden who campaigned for Bosnia in the US Congress during the last war. The interests but also the sense of justice and humanity, on the path of political “representation” to its public overwhelmed by horrible images of crimes in Bosnia, are not the same as in the needs of serving state interests today.
Biden’s current position is second. At the threat of China squaring its multi-strategic, long-term planetary project, political and financial, technological and futuristic with the conciliatory name “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) – America is forced into dramatic regrouping. Pre-election promises to turn to Europe soon spilled over into turning to the Asia-Pacific region. Sorry Brussels, Sorry Middle East, Sorry all others…
Instead of leading the composition of the Western alliance with Paris, Berlin, Brussels, the locomotive from Washington returned to its safety composition: Japan, Australia, India (QUAD)… Aircraft carriers move around Taiwan, military bases in the Pacific zone and near Australia, and old hotspots they try to extinguish themselves by not engaging the army and weapons where it is not urgent. We need to return to the “nuclear agreement” with Iran, calm the Palestinians to stop the growth of Hamas and Islamic jihad, to leave Afghanistan “which they themselves did not want to defend from the Taliban. Then why would we do the same?” And the legendary Foreign Affairs, which are mostly quietly announcing major world geostrategic changes, are advising Biden to make some concessions with Moscow, because that could be a stronger front against China.
The culmination of a cold gestures completely contrary to the mantra of eternal friendships was the decision to turn to a new alliance with Australia and Great Britain (AUKUS) instead of with the Europeans, especially with the always (too) ambitious French. The French, shocked, in this story are left without a job of 56 billion euros for the construction of 12 diesel submarines for Australia. Instead, Australia is suddenly buying nuclear submarines from the US and the UK. Interestingly, the decision on AUKUS was announced literally on the same day that Borrell was preparing to announce the EU’s Indo-Pacific strategy to the world in close cooperation with Washington. Like Macron, he does not forgive Biden for his departure from the EU.
Still, does it take a lot of wisdom to understand the anger of France and, say, the sudden sympathy of Paris for those that Americans today sharply criticize in BiH, Serbia and RS – verbally threatening them with sanctions. Does it take too much wisdom to understand the alleged “defeat” of America and the “victory” of Russia in the UN Security Council about ten days ago? When it was most important for the Americans – because of their own peace (and the myth of Dayton as their victory) to have EUFOR in Bosnia and Herzegovina for their effective turning towards the Pacific. It is a guarantee of the “status quo” against the Russians in the Balkans. Like the Russians against the Americans with whom there is no need for war in the Balkans. It is time to negotiate a much more important division of zones of interest.
And here, in the Escobar-Palmer clearing, it is enough to preserve the existing success, minus which individual and which company, sanctioned just as much as they should be lucky that “no more shooting” mantra, goes on. For Dayton Two, Constitution Two, completely different “leaders” – it’s neither the situation nor time. So if the very first group from the beginning of the text is able to say, thank you foreigners for your good will, we will fight for dignity, reputation and respect in the world, for a clean judiciary and fight against corruption and political facts, as much and as possible here – then good. We will send you a message from a distance that you are really OK and that this is how it should be. If there is time from the Chinese and their activities…
Take What Reality Offers You, Little One
And that’s all, Lo and behold, a policy that optimists who believe someone loves them far away would have to consider. And it’s not complicated. The logic is clear: Take what reality offers you, little one. In the meantime, try not to be forever small. It’s not easy, but it can be done. Well, there are memories and archives and partners. If nothing else, it will be clearer why Americans promise sincerely and thus do what primarily suits them. That is how the Russians keep what they have and dig from the inside, slowly strengthening the negotiating position with the Americans on NATO and the Balkans, tomorrow. Why do the French suddenly again sentimentally remember the Thessaloniki Front and historical ties with Serbia? Without ever saying goodbye to Biden’s submarine to Australia. Why Washington, the historical guardian of Israel, suddenly “legalizes” Palestine in Jerusalem by building its consulate for them, to the horror of Prime Minister Bennett, whom he de facto invented. So to stop the overly dangerous growth of Hamas power.
All this does not require special and rare intelligence. The problem with the mind, however, is with those who are passionate about lies and force, tampering and ignorance. They show no signs of minimal realism. The only way out is to change them. And to cheer, “balanced”, that those who have demolished with interest, should also build it back up. This is simply rude, both humanly and politically – a great and dangerous nothing!
To put it mildly.
