The first half of the long and spectacularly announced match in which American-European justice will deal with the evil forces in Bosnia and Herzegovina ended in a draw. Without any goals, and everyone interprets it in their own way and in their own favour. Guests from abroad whose main players, in the announced victory, showed what they had, for now. Stand your ground – there will be something next time! The hosts are on the well-coordinated line of defence where the stoppers are always, conceptually. In anticipation of the sequel, holding hands firmly, as destined. If one stumbles, everyone falls and the commonly desired goal of both the attack and defence – a draw – remains until the end, with a few yellow cards and maybe, just maybe, one red card, if it benefits everyone.
The statements of the players who attack the, let’s say disbanded, so-called home defence team, are well known and precise. Everyone around them interprets them as needed and with the help of the definitely adopted reality, where the facts no longer apply to the interpretation of self-constructed interesting truths.
A counterattack was expected
It is known what the players from the top of the attack said the following days, with all the juggling present in the game:
Matthew Palmer, US Envoy for Electoral Reform in BiH: ‘We are not here to provide a concrete solution, we are helping… BiH can count on the United States but no one can offer concrete solutions.’
Angelina Eichhorst, Director of the European External Action Service (EEAS): ‘We are trying to put on the table a framework for later negotiations… The essence is to strengthen institutions for the benefit of citizens…’
Christian Schmidt, High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina: ‘I do not believe that the conditions set by BiH Presidency member Milorad Dodik should be accepted in order to remove the blockade in state institutions… But I have a strong impression that some people already see Mr Dodik exaggerating a bit…’
After such words and naive optimism that a somewhat logical, concrete answer of the creators of Dayton BiH is being prepared to those who publicly announce a classic coup d’etat against that same BiH. Now, the BiH institutions will NOT be strengthened by those who consciously and purposefully demolished them, and that a grotesque claim that ‘SOME people saw that Dodik has exaggerated a LITTLE bit’ – a defensive counterattack was expected.
With the Pale Declaration of his SNSD, Dodik without hesitation repeats to exhaustion – he has no other choice – that the BiH Institutions (minimum BiH Armed Forces, State Investigation and Protection Agency – SIPA, and Indirect Taxation Authority) will be expelled from RS, etc., etc. Čović rushes to a meeting in East Sarajevo and shows full understanding for the ‘arguments’, and states that Dodik is not a threat to the stability of BiH (?!), Vučić at the same time invites Izetbegović to Belgrade as a representative of Bosniaks in BiH (sic!) At first Izetbegović wanted to come, mentioning that the crown will not fall from his head, and then suddenly, he won’t come, cooled by the reactions of the public, and probably by the movement of the crown. Milanović brings Dodik to Zagreb in the same way, and then offers a spectacle for history: The problem of BiH will be solved by him, Milanović, together with Vučić and Erdoğan, with the participation of ‘representatives of the three peoples in BiH, Čović, Dodik and Izetbegović’! However, this with Čović remains a bit unclear after a noticeable change in Milanović’s own status – from the former ‘president of all citizens in Croatia’ to ‘president of all Croats’. Admittedly, he has not yet said ‘all Croats in the world’, but he has thrown it halfway across the Balkans. Defence Minister Mario Banožić further asserted to him – and in preparation for sending an army to BiH. Against whom? Should we say how much the Russians measure from a distance in this scheme regarding their ‘clients’ in the Balkans?
For now, all the elements needed to maintain a profitable status quo in BiH, in the interest of the creators of this supposedly state-building and sovereign construction and their thirty-year triumphant ego, the installed domestic greedy people in the project, somehow survived. However, every artificial creation that does not respect both the historical and current reality, touches its red line from time to time. And ‘peaceful Bosnia’ was and could still be a historical reality with no bigger problems than those of many other countries in Europe and in the rest of the world. With one condition: That red line should be recognized, especially if it is exceeded, and not just touched. There are no new plans without stating the demise of the old one.
Good and Bad Guys
Dodik’s openly announced coup, however, is not acknowledged by the creators of Dayton and the post-Dayton reality. Or because they have also lost the capacity (or real interest) to make concrete rescue moves for ‘their’ BiH, and us little ones here. Or because they believe that Dodik will cover himself with ashes at the last minute, and they will then, in the name of the mentioned status quo strategy, happily say how ‘it is still possible’. Some will even like his grotesque statement given in the company of Čović, ‘We don’t want to deceive anyone … we are perfectly good guys.’ Of course, among the ‘bad guys’ there are many who are convinced that he will this time, with all the political-scoundrel moves go all the way, to the very end.
All of the above are more or less well-known news that meet even the former standards in journalism, which are no longer interesting, and according to which the news sought answers to questions, who, how, when, where and why. It can be seen that the answers to the first four questions in the news about the drama that is going on in Bosnia and Herzegovina, both with helpers and with drowning people, exist. The answer to the question, ’Why?’ Is missing, as always in such situations.
There are many variants on the table, with possible answers regarding this question. From seemingly strategically less important and clear, such as the miserable psychology of small people in important places that make under-the-table deals with each other, despite all the ‘constitutive’ differences, and keep everything stolen in the past thirty years. That is why their survival in power is an unquestionable imperative, at any cost. With the production of fear and nationalist hatred in such a BiH, they believe they can survive. And softening the rhetoric of all three – especially Dodik’s anti-NATO, most important for the Americans, with a return to ‘love’ between SNSD, SDA and HDZ and thus preserving nationalist policy – is a gift for the made-up attackers and defenders of such a state.
The second variant is foreign and ‘geostrategic’. The Americans, obviously, are not ready to easily admit the defeat of the concept they installed through the ‘Peace Agreement’ but never completed it. Institutionalism with ‘leaders’ who continued the concept of dividing and opening an ‘unfinished war’ for their own sake, was doomed since the beginning. However, who are we and what are we today, with our problems, at a time when America is facing a huge and cunning, ‘hard’ China with mega ambitions and new partners. Biden hits wherever he can, under the cloak of the strongest, and calms down wherever he can in order to free up capacity for tomorrow’s brutal match against Beijing. Hence the internal signals at home that he should roll the ball with Russia as well. He would also calm down the Middle East, Iran, there are mutual compliments with Erdoğan, the failed Afghanistan left to angry destabilizers and partners to the Taliban, and – why does he need to trouble himself with Bosnia? And the radical change here, with the destroyed substance of mind, knowledge, criteria and new young people on that line, is Mission Impossible. A little personnel cosmetics and a few sanctions against individuals have never significantly changed a seriously difficult situation. Serious cuts are needed for a serious change. Even today, the Americans and ‘their’ NATO will find a solution for their interest with the Russians, and vice versa. The joke is that Dodik will be either important to them, or an obstacle.
The Result Is Known in Advance
The European Union is a special problem. With each passing day, its strength and role in the world is getting smaller. Without the Brits, Merkel, with her own troubles, with Macron, who is now along the way to persuading Biden to give up the OHR and the High Representative in BiH (his opposition to EU enlargement is already known) – is enough of an answer to another bad news about our match. The one about the grave silence of Brussels on the occasion of a significant letter from Inzko about the alarming situation in BiH sent on May 17 this year to Joseph Borell, who is in charge of foreign policy and security in the EU. And now they are racing to save their bureaucrats with stories about the importance of institutions in the lives of BiH citizens and calls on the destroyers of those institutions – to save them.
Now what? Wait for the second half and the complete running machinery with the attackers and the defence trading and making deals in the locker room, behind closed doors, in order to agree on a draw. Otherwise, the attackers lost their pride in the historic construction of the stadium without the field and goals, and the defenders in false promises that they will plant grass and fulfil the wishes of the spectators. These, meanwhile, are sitting, silent and waiting. Meanwhile someone else, unusually brave, secretly played music in the stadium over the loudspeaker. The song was Balašević’s, old and eternal:
It’s not the fault of the primitives
That skimmed off the cream
Weeds spring up where they can
We can only congratulate them
It’s our fault
Where did all these parasites come from
That made it hard for us
Let it go, old man,
It’s our fault
For letting them
Fair well, planet
People are summoning the Devil here
We’re doing nicely
It’s an indescribable picture
There, sort of. We are waiting for the second half. Everything hints at an agreed draw and a cocktail party for those invited afterwards. With a new promise, just like after Dayton, that a new game will be played, once more. The Betting Houses are doing worse and worse because the result is now known in advance, and for this new game with this draw, there will be no more spectators. She’s already gone.
As Đole would say, it’s our fault, for keeping our mouths shut…